As we move through August, the truckload market continues to show signs of seasonal cooling, but the broader market remains tighter than it was earlier in the year. Dry van rejection rates and spot pricing have continued to ease from their early summer highs, while reefer and flatbed markets are showing more resilience. At the same time, shipment volumes have softened, particularly within dry van freight.
The current market is a good example of why looking at a single metric does not tell the entire story. Rejection rates, spot pricing, and shipment volumes are all moving, but they are not moving at the same pace across each mode. Understanding how those indicators interact provides a clearer picture of where capacity and pricing may be headed through the remainder of August.
Load Tender Rejections
The chart compares all mode tender rejection rates, currently at approximately 13.46%, with dry van pay of approximately $3.34 per mile, including fuel.
The trend continues to demonstrate a clear relationship between tightening capacity and rising freight rates. When carriers reject a greater percentage of contracted freight, more shipments are pushed into the spot market. That increases competition for available trucks and gives carriers greater pricing leverage.
Following the seasonal disruption around the Fourth of July, both rejection rates and dry van pricing have continued to ease. Freight volumes have normalized, some capacity has returned to the market, and the initial summer surge has worked its way through the system. However, this cooling should not automatically be interpreted as a complete market reset.
The relationship between rejection rates and pricing became especially clear from May through early July. Rejection rates accelerated sharply as available capacity tightened, and freight rates followed higher. When contracted carriers reject more freight, shippers and brokerages must secure replacement trucks in the spot market. That additional spot market exposure creates more competition for limited capacity and ultimately raises the price required to cover each shipment.
Even after the recent pullback, rejection rates and freight pricing remain meaningful indicators of a market that is still more constrained than it was earlier in 2026.
The key takeaway remains simple: as rejection rates rise, freight rates generally rise with them. Elevated rejection levels signal that contracted capacity is becoming less dependable, forcing more freight into the spot market and supporting higher carrier pricing.
As we move through the second half of August, the question is whether rejection rates will continue declining or begin responding to late summer demand. Labor Day inventory positioning, produce activity, and other seasonal freight could put renewed pressure on capacity before the month comes to a close.
Rejection Rate by Mode
Rejection rates continue to move differently across each major mode, highlighting how regional and commodity specific conditions are shaping the market.
Current Rejection Rates
Dry Van: 12.08%, down 0.86% from the previous week
Reefer: 19.81%, up 0.83% from the previous week
Flatbed: 18.55%, up 0.35% from the previous week
Dry van rejection rates continue to trend downward week over week, reflecting the ongoing normalization of capacity and softer dry van shipment volumes.
Reefer and flatbed are telling a different story. Reefer rejection rates have moved higher and remain firmly in the 18% to 20% range, while flatbed rejection rates have also increased modestly.
The difference between the modes reinforces the importance of looking beyond the overall market average. Capacity conditions can vary significantly depending on equipment type, geography, commodity, and seasonal demand.
For reefer, late summer produce activity continues to shift toward California, the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, and other northern growing regions. Flatbed continues to benefit from construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and industrial demand.
Spot Rates Including Fuel
Dry van spot rates currently average approximately $3.34 per mile, including fuel, down $0.05 from the previous week.
The continued decline in dry van pricing aligns with the drop in rejection rates and shipment volumes. The post summer slowdown has created some additional breathing room for capacity, particularly in dry van. However, the current rate environment still warrants attention. A continued decline in rejection rates and volumes would put additional downward pressure on pricing, while a late August demand increase could quickly change the balance.
Reefer spot rates currently average approximately $3.76 per mile, up $0.03 from the previous week.
The current 2026 trajectory continues to sit well outside the pattern established by previous years. Unlike dry van, reefer pricing is showing modest upward movement, supported by elevated rejection rates and continued seasonal produce demand. As produce continues moving through California, the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, and the Upper Midwest, regional capacity imbalances could continue creating opportunities for carriers and challenges for shippers.
Flatbed spot rates currently average approximately $4.04 per mile, down $0.07 from the previous week.
Flatbed pricing has softened slightly, but the market remains supported by construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and industrial activity. The 2026 trajectory also remains significantly different from previous years.
The combination of elevated rejection rates and continued industrial demand means flatbed should remain an important market to monitor as we approach the end of summer.
Shipment Volumes
Shipment volumes have continued to recede following the seasonal correction that began after the Fourth of July holiday.
The decline has been particularly noticeable in dry van freight, which is currently trending downward quickly.
When comparing 2026 with previous years, the overall timing of the market remains relatively similar, but the volume levels are different.
Notably, current volumes have fallen below the levels recorded in 2023, which represented the highest volume year among the previous four years. A significant portion of that decline is being driven by dry van volume. This is an important development because shipment volume represents the demand side of the supply and demand equation. If volumes continue falling while available capacity increases, additional pressure could develop on spot rates and rejection levels. At the same time, reefer and flatbed are showing more stability. Their elevated rejection rates and comparatively firm pricing demonstrate that the broader market is not moving uniformly in one direction.
What This Means for the Market
The freight market is continuing to cool in August, but the data does not yet point toward a major market reversal.
Dry van is showing the clearest signs of normalization, with rejection rates, spot pricing, and shipment volumes all moving lower. Reefer and flatbed remain comparatively stronger, with rejection rates holding elevated and spot pricing showing more resilience.
The biggest question heading into the second half of August is whether seasonal demand will begin putting pressure back on capacity.
Labor Day inventory positioning, late summer produce, food and beverage demand, and the approaching CVSA Brake Safety Week from August 23 through August 29 could all influence truck availability and service levels before the month ends.
For shippers and brokers, this is a market where staying close to the data matters. The market has cooled from its early summer highs, but capacity conditions remain important and individual modes are behaving very differently.
Watching rejection rates, spot pricing, and shipment volumes together provides a much clearer picture of where the market is heading next. If demand begins recovering while capacity remains constrained, the relationship between rejection rates and freight pricing could quickly come back into focus.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager