The truckload market appears to be stabilizing after the seasonal cooling that followed the Fourth of July. Tender rejection rates have recovered from their late summer lows, spot pricing remains firm, and refrigerated freight continues to show notable strength.
The market has not returned to the tight conditions seen in late June and early July. Still, the latest data suggests that some of the capacity relief experienced during July and August may be fading. For shippers, the next several weeks will help determine whether the market is simply finding balance or beginning another tightening cycle ahead of the fourth quarter.
Tender Rejections Recover While Spot Pricing Holds Firm
All mode tender rejection rates are currently about 14.55 percent, while the SONAR National Truckload Index is approximately $3.42 per mile, including fuel.
These two measurements provide one of the clearest views of truckload capacity. When carriers reject a larger share of contracted freight, more shipments move into the spot market. That creates greater competition for available trucks and gives carriers more pricing leverage. When rejection rates remain elevated for a sustained period, spot rates often follow.
This relationship was especially visible from late winter through early summer. Rejection rates moved from the low to middle single digits during fall 2025 into the teens by early 2026. Spot pricing climbed alongside them as contracted capacity became less dependable and more freight entered the spot market.
Both measurements reached their strongest levels around late June and early July. Rejection rates approached 17.5 to 18 percent, while the National Truckload Index rose to roughly $3.75 to $3.80 per mile. That period represented one of the tightest capacity environments of the year.
Conditions eased after the Fourth of July. Rejection rates declined through July and much of August, while spot pricing also moved down from its summer peak. This cooling reflected a familiar seasonal pattern as holiday urgency faded, freight became less concentrated and more capacity returned to the market.
The latest movement deserves attention. Tender rejections and spot pricing began recovering during August and early September. The National Truckload Index has returned to the low $3.40 range, while rejection rates are back in the middle teens. Spot pricing has remained relatively stable near $3.42 per mile even as rejection rates have moved more sharply from week to week. That suggests pricing is holding firmer than short term changes in rejection activity might imply.
Tender rejections often provide an early signal of changing carrier leverage. If they continue to rise or remain above their August levels, more contracted freight could move into the spot market and create renewed upward pressure on pricing.
The market is tighter than it was during the August low point, but it has not returned to the extreme conditions seen around the Fourth of July. For now, the data points to a market that has found firmer footing as the fourth quarter approaches.
Capacity Trends Differ by Equipment Type
Current rejection rates show that capacity is moving in different directions across the three major equipment types.
Dry van rejection rates are 11.67 percent, an increase of 0.88 percentage points from the previous week.
Reefer rejection rates are 22.04 percent, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the previous week.
Flatbed rejection rates are 19.86 percent, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from the previous week.
Dry van and reefer both tightened during the week, while flatbed capacity showed some improvement. Reefer remains the tightest of the three modes, with more than one in five tenders being rejected. Flatbed rejection activity moved lower, but its rate remains elevated enough to warrant careful planning.
These differences make it important to evaluate capacity by equipment type instead of relying only on a national average.
Dry Van Pricing Remains Steady
The national dry van rate is currently about $3.42 per mile, including fuel. That is one cent lower than the previous week.
The small weekly decline suggests that dry van pricing is relatively stable. At the same time, the increase in tender rejections indicates that contracted capacity may be becoming less dependable. If rejection activity continues to rise, spot pricing could face renewed pressure even if shipment volume remains soft.
Reefer Rates Continue Their Climb
The national reefer rate is approximately $3.91 per mile, including fuel. That is four cents higher than the previous week.
The increase in pricing is consistent with a reefer rejection rate above 22 percent. Refrigerated freight continues to follow a path that differs noticeably from recent years, making older seasonal patterns less reliable for short term planning.
Rising shipment volume, seasonal food demand and the need for temperature controlled equipment are all contributing to a tighter reefer market. Shippers moving refrigerated freight may benefit from additional lead time and greater flexibility around pickup appointments.
Flatbed Rates Rise Despite Lower Rejections
The national flatbed rate is currently about $4.14 per mile, including fuel. That is seven cents higher than the previous week.
Flatbed rejection rates declined during the week, but pricing still moved higher. This may reflect the time it takes for rate trends to respond to changing capacity, as well as continued demand for specialized equipment, construction materials and project freight.
The 2026 flatbed rate trend also remains noticeably different from last year. Shippers should continue planning early for specialized loads, job site deliveries and lanes with limited return freight.
Shipment Volumes Follow Familiar Timing at Different Levels
Overall shipment volumes continue to follow familiar seasonal timing, but the size of the movements differs from previous years. Traditional patterns still provide useful context, although they do not fully explain current capacity and pricing conditions.
The comparison shows that major volume shifts continue to occur around similar points in the year, even when total shipment levels differ. This helps explain why capacity can tighten around seasonal events even when overall freight volume is lower.
Dry Van Volume Remains Below Recent Years
Dry van volume remains below the levels recorded during the same period in each of the previous three years. Volume fell sharply after the Fourth of July and has remained at a lower level following Labor Day.
This creates an important market dynamic. Dry van volume is comparatively soft, but rejection rates are rising and spot pricing remains firm. That suggests total shipment volume is only one part of the pricing picture. Carrier participation, available equipment and the concentration of freight within specific markets also influence capacity.
Reefer Volume Continues to Strengthen
Reefer volume began separating from its earlier seasonal pattern in June. After tracking near 2023 levels for much of the year, volume moved ahead and has continued to rise since August.
That growth helps explain why reefer rejection rates remain above 22 percent and why spot rates continue to increase. Seasonal produce, food demand and limited refrigerated capacity can quickly create pressure, even when other parts of the truckload market appear more balanced.
What Shippers Should Watch Next
The truckload market is sending a more cautious signal than it did during the quieter weeks of August. Tender rejections have recovered, spot pricing is holding firm and reefer conditions remain tight.
Dry van pricing is stable, but rising rejection rates could create pressure if the trend continues. Reefer is showing the clearest signs of tightening, with both rejection rates and spot pricing moving higher. Flatbed rejections eased during the week, although rates continued to climb.
As the fourth quarter approaches, shippers can reduce risk by sharing accurate forecasts, providing as much lead time as possible and maintaining flexibility around pickup and delivery appointments. Monitoring rejection rates alongside spot pricing will remain important because changes in contracted capacity often appear before a larger move in market rates.
IEL will continue tracking these trends to help customers prepare for changing dry van, reefer and flatbed conditions.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager