If you’ve been in logistics the past few years, you know Q1 typically brings a sense of relief. Rejection rates trend down, capacity loosens, and things normalize after peak season.
That’s not happening in 2026.
Load Tender Rejections
As of early April, outbound tender rejection rates are sitting around 13.76%, with only a slight dip since that reading. Historically, Q1 rejection rates fall in the 5–8% range, which held true across 2023, 2024, and 2025.
This year has completely broken that pattern.
Instead of declining, rejection rates have held steady in the 13–14% range throughout Q1. That consistency at elevated levels signals ongoing disruption across the market.
For anyone newer to the space, rejection rates represent the percentage of contracted freight that carriers decline. As that number rises, it becomes harder for shippers to rely on their routing guides, forcing more freight into the spot market.
Rejection Rate by Mode
Breaking it down further, volatility becomes even more clear when you look at rejection rates by mode:
Dry Van: 14.31%
Reefer: 17.48%
Flatbed: 35.26%
Dry van is elevated. Reefer is tightening further as we approach produce season.
Flatbed, however, stands in a category of its own.
At over 35%, flatbed capacity is extremely constrained. This level of rejection signals major imbalance between supply and demand, creating significant challenges for shippers moving construction materials, machinery, and project freight.
Spot Rate (Without Fuel) US Average
Spot rates continue to reinforce what rejection rates are already telling us.
Looking at national averages without fuel included, 2026 rates are clearly elevated compared to the previous three years. Even when removing diesel from the equation, the cost to move freight is higher.
This matters because fuel has been a major talking point, but it is only one piece of the puzzle. The underlying cost of transportation itself is increasing.
Shipment Volumes
While capacity is tightening, demand is moving in the opposite direction.
Shipment volumes in 2026 are exceeding both 2024 and 2025, with steady growth throughout Q1 and continuing into April, despite a slight pullback to start the month. This points directly to the demand side of the equation increasing.
As volumes rise, several things begin to happen across the network:
- Trucks get absorbed faster
- Reload opportunities tighten
- Driver flexibility shrinks due to hours of service constraints
- Carriers prioritize shorter, higher-margin freight
- Network imbalances grow between regions
Even if there are “enough trucks” nationally, there are not always enough trucks in the right places at the right times.
As more tenders enter the market:
- Primary carriers fill up faster
- Freight spills into backup options
- Rejection rates increase
- Spot quotes rise
- Service consistency drops on short-lead shipments
This is especially important heading into:
- Southeast Produce Season
- California Produce Season
- The many different holidays in Q2
- Retail restocks
Those seasonal events stack on top of already elevated volume and cause rates to elevate
This becomes even more important as we move into seasonal pressure points like produce season, Q2 holidays, and retail restocking cycles. These events will stack on top of already elevated demand and continue pushing rates higher.
Logistics Managers Index – March Update
The latest data from the Logistics Managers Index confirms what we are seeing across the market.
Transportation prices are increasing, while capacity is moving in the opposite direction.
March capacity came in at 39.2, approaching levels typically seen during peak holiday periods. That is notable for this time of year and signals how tight the market has become.
One contributing factor is ongoing enforcement around non-domiciled CDLs, which is actively reducing available capacity.
When you place pricing and capacity side by side, the relationship is clear. As capacity exits the market, pricing responds.
Here at Integrity Express Logistics, we are ready to help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager