Freight market conditions in 2026 are tightening, with load tender rejection rates rising to around 14%, significantly higher than the typical 5–7% levels seen in February in previous years. This increase is driving higher spot rates and more disrupted supply chains, forcing shippers to rely more heavily on brokers to cover loads at higher prices. Flatbed capacity is especially tight, with rejection rates exceeding 40%, largely due to increased demand for raw materials tied to manufacturing and data center construction.
Load Tender Rejections
This chart is a comparison of Rejection Rates for years 2026, 2025, 2024, and 2023.
A rejection rate is the percentage of freight that is being rejected by contracted carriers within customers contracted lanes. The higher the percentage, the more problems shippers have covering their freight, and the more they rely on brokers for coverage.
We are now at a 14% rejection rate and sustaining. You can see a minor pullback, but even now rejection rates are trending a small bit upward.
If you compare our 2026 Trendline to the previous 3 years, a huge pattern disruption is that February is usually a trending down month for rejection rates. Which all three previous years sitting at around 5-7% rejection rates for Feb-March.
Instead we are looking at 14% and holding currently.
Rejection Rate by Mode
This is to give you a better idea of the rejection rate by mode.
Remember, the higher the rejection rate, the higher the volatility.
DRY VAN – 13.28%
REEFER – 22.04%
FLATBED – 40%+
Trucking capacity remains tight across the market, though not nearly to the degree seen in the flatbed sector. Flatbed demand has surged to extremely tight levels, driven by raw materials, especially steel and manufacturing components. Because flatbeds typically move raw materials rather than finished goods, they serve as an early indicator of manufacturing momentum.
Historically, flatbed volumes have tracked closely with single‑family housing starts, but that relationship has recently decoupled, signaling a manufacturing‑led acceleration instead of a housing‑driven one. A significant share of this demand is also tied to data‑center construction, which requires large quantities of materials such as copper, fiber, steel, concrete, PVC, power systems, and cooling infrastructure.
Spot Rate (Per Mile w/o Fuel) US Average
Truckload (All modes) average pay per mile (without fuel) for SPOT is currently far elevated from previous years. We are seeing a very slow pullback on this, which is expected with the passing of the recent snowstorm.
However, even with the trendline heading downward, we are still high/higher than the peak of Q4 2025.
Here at Integrity Express Logistics, we are ready to help you navigate these roads.