The truckload market is showing renewed signs of tightening as September gets underway. All-mode tender rejection rates have moved higher, while dry van, reefer, and flatbed spot rates are also showing upward movement. At the same time, overall shipment volumes remain uneven, with dry van volumes still trailing recent years while refrigerated freight continues to strengthen.
The latest data suggests that the post-summer market is beginning to shift. While national freight volumes have not returned to the levels seen during the early-summer peak, rising rejection rates and improving spot rates indicate that available capacity is becoming more constrained in several segments.
Load Tender Rejections
The chart compares all-mode tender rejection rates, currently at approximately 14.09%, with the SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI), currently at approximately $3.44 per mile, including fuel.
The relationship between these two indicators remains one of the clearest signals in the current truckload market. As carriers reject a greater share of contracted freight, more shipments are pushed into the spot market. That increases competition for available trucks and gives carriers more leverage to raise spot pricing. In general, when rejection rates move higher, truckload rates tend to follow.
That relationship became especially clear from late winter through early summer. Rejection rates climbed steadily from early-year levels into the mid-teens, while the NTI also moved materially higher. As routing guides deteriorated and contracted capacity became less reliable, more freight spilled into the spot market, creating upward pressure on all-in truckload pricing.
Both indicators peaked during the late-June to early-July period. Rejection rates reached the upper-17% range, while the NTI climbed to roughly $3.75 to $3.80 per mile. That combination reflected one of the tightest capacity environments of the year, when carriers had significant flexibility in choosing freight and shippers faced more difficulty securing trucks at contracted rates.
Since the Fourth of July, both measures have eased from those summer highs. However, the latest data shows that the market may be entering another period of tightening. Rejection rates have climbed back to approximately 14.09%, while the NTI has increased to approximately $3.44 per mile.
The move higher is important because it comes after several weeks of post-holiday normalization. Rather than continuing to loosen, the market is showing signs that some of that available capacity may be disappearing as September freight activity develops.
Even after pulling back from their early-summer peaks, both rejection rates and truckload pricing remain above the levels seen entering 2026. This suggests that the market remains materially tighter than it was earlier in the year and that carriers continue to hold more leverage than they did during the winter months.
The key takeaway is that capacity availability remains one of the most important drivers of spot-market pricing. The recent increase in rejection rates, combined with higher truckload rates, is a signal worth watching as the market moves deeper into September and toward the fourth quarter.
Rejection Rate by Mode
The chart tracks load tender rejection rates across Dry Van, Reefer and Flatbed over the past year.
Current Rejection Rates
- Dry Van – 12.35% — Up 0.91% from the previous week
- Reefer – 21.82% — Up 0.50% from the previous week
- Flatbed – 18.99% — Down 3.40% from the previous week
The latest data shows a mixed picture across equipment types. Dry Van and Reefer rejection rates increased, while Flatbed experienced a sharp decline.
The continued strength in reefer rejection rates is particularly notable. At 21.82%, reefer remains the most constrained of the three major modes, reflecting continued pressure on refrigerated capacity.
Dry van rejection rates have also begun moving higher after declining from their summer peak. The increase to 12.35% suggests that the post-holiday improvement in dry van capacity may be losing some momentum.
Flatbed is moving in the opposite direction this week, with rejection rates falling to 18.99%. Despite the decline, flatbed rejection rates remain elevated compared with earlier periods of the year.
Overall, the data points to a market where capacity conditions are becoming increasingly dependent on equipment type and freight region rather than moving uniformly in one direction.
Spot Rates: Including Fuel
Dry Van
The average pay per mile for Dry Van, including fuel, is currently $3.44 per mile, representing an increase of $0.09 from the previous week.
The increase in dry van pricing is consistent with the recent rise in tender rejection activity. After declining following the Fourth of July, dry van pricing is showing signs of stabilization and renewed upward movement.
This is an important development heading into September. If rejection rates continue to rise while dry van volumes stabilize or increase, spot pricing could face additional upward pressure as shippers compete for available capacity.
Reefer
The average pay per mile for Reefer, including fuel, is currently $3.84 per mile, up $0.05 from the previous week.
The 2026 trajectory continues to sit noticeably outside the pattern established by previous years. Reefer pricing remains supported by elevated rejection rates and continued refrigerated freight activity.
With reefer rejection rates now above 21%, the combination of tight capacity and rising spot pricing suggests that refrigerated transportation remains one of the strongest segments of the current truckload market.
Flatbed
The average pay per mile for Flatbed, including fuel, is currently $4.02 per mile, up $0.03 from the previous week.
Although flatbed rejection rates declined this week, spot pricing continued to move higher. The 2026 flatbed trajectory also remains noticeably different from previous years.
The combination of resilient industrial demand and elevated rates continues to make flatbed an important segment to monitor as September progresses.
Shipment Volumes
This chart shows the fluctuation in all-mode FTL shipment volume over the past year.
The 2026 volume trend continues to mirror the general seasonal timing of previous years, although the overall volume levels differ.
The market has experienced significant changes since the Fourth of July, and overall shipment volumes remain below some of the strongest levels from previous years. This is an important counterpoint to the recent increase in rejection rates and spot pricing: the market does not need to experience a massive increase in national volume for capacity to tighten in specific segments or regions.
Dry Van Volume
Dry van volume remains lower than the previous three years.
Volume dropped significantly following the Fourth of July and has continued to trend below historical levels. The current trajectory suggests that dry van freight has not yet experienced a broad-based volume recovery.
However, the recent increase in dry van rejection rates and spot pricing indicates that capacity conditions can tighten even without a significant increase in total shipment volume. Regional freight patterns, carrier positioning and the availability of trucks can have a significant impact on pricing.
The latest volume data therefore supports a more nuanced view of the dry van market: national volume remains relatively soft, but available capacity is becoming less comfortable.
Reefer Volume
Refrigerated freight continues to stand out from the broader volume picture.
Since June, reefer volume has moved into an increasingly different trajectory compared with previous years. After roughly mirroring earlier-year patterns, reefer volumes have continued to rise considerably since August.
That increase helps explain the continued strength in reefer rejection rates and spot pricing. As refrigerated shipment volumes increase while available equipment remains constrained in key markets, carriers gain additional leverage and shippers may face greater difficulty securing capacity.
The combination of rising reefer volume, a 21.82% rejection rate, and a $3.84-per-mile average spot rate makes refrigerated freight one of the most important areas to monitor heading into the fall.
What to Watch Next
The latest market data points to a truckload market that is beginning to tighten again after the post-Fourth of July normalization period.
Several indicators deserve close attention over the coming weeks:
- Tender rejections are rising, particularly for dry van and reefer.
- Dry van, reefer and flatbed spot rates are currently moving higher.
- Reefer rejection rates remain above 20%, signaling continued pressure on refrigerated capacity.
- Dry van volumes remain below recent historical levels, but capacity is becoming less comfortable.
- Reefer volumes continue to strengthen, creating additional pressure on refrigerated equipment.
- All-mode rejection rates have moved back above 14%, suggesting the broader capacity environment is tightening.
The most important takeaway is that the market does not appear to be following a simple volume-driven cycle. While dry van shipment volumes remain relatively soft, rejection rates and spot pricing are moving higher. That suggests capacity availability, regional imbalances and equipment-specific demand are playing an increasingly important role in determining transportation costs.
As September progresses and the market moves closer to the fourth-quarter shipping season, these trends will be important indicators of whether the recent increase represents a short-term correction or the beginning of another sustained tightening cycle.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager