The truckload market has cooled from its early summer peak, but it has not returned to the softer conditions seen at the beginning of 2026. Tender rejection rates remain elevated, spot rates are holding firm, and the latest data shows meaningful differences among dry van, reefer and flatbed freight.
For shippers, the key message is straightforward. Capacity is more available than it was around the Fourth of July, but securing trucks at contracted rates can still be challenging. As the market moves into the fall shipping season, close attention to each transportation mode will be important.
Rejection Rates and Spot Pricing Continue to Move Together
All mode tender rejection rates are currently about 13.21 percent, while the SONAR National Truckload Index is approximately $3.43 per mile, including fuel.
These two measurements provide one of the clearest views of the current truckload market. When carriers reject a larger share of contracted freight, more shipments enter the spot market. This creates more competition for available trucks and gives carriers greater pricing leverage. As a result, rising rejection rates often lead to higher spot rates.
That relationship was especially visible from late winter through early summer. Rejection rates climbed from the low single digits into the mid teens, while the National Truckload Index also moved noticeably higher. As contracted capacity became less dependable, more freight moved into the spot market and increased pressure on truckload pricing.
Both indicators reached their recent high point from late June into early July. Rejection rates rose into the upper 17 percent range, while the National Truckload Index reached roughly $3.75 to $3.80 per mile. During this period, carriers had more freedom to select freight and shippers faced greater difficulty securing trucks at contracted rates.
Conditions have eased since the Fourth of July. Rejection rates have declined to about 13.21 percent, and the National Truckload Index has moved back to roughly $3.43 per mile. This cooling follows a familiar seasonal pattern as holiday urgency fades, freight becomes less concentrated and some capacity returns to the market.
Still, the pullback does not represent a complete market reset. Rejection rates and truckload pricing remain well above the levels recorded at the start of 2026. Carriers continue to have more leverage than they did during the winter, and spot pricing could remain firm unless rejection rates decline more significantly.
Capacity Conditions Vary by Equipment Type
The latest rejection rates show that capacity conditions are not moving in the same direction across all equipment types.
| Mode | Current rejection rate | Weekly movement |
|---|---|---|
| Dry van | 10.79 percent | Down 1.56 percentage points |
| Reefer | 20.92 percent | Down 0.90 percentage points |
| Flatbed | 21.63 percent | Up 2.64 percentage points |
Dry van and reefer rejection rates declined during the past week, suggesting that capacity pressure eased slightly in those markets. Flatbed moved in the opposite direction. Its rejection rate increased to 21.63 percent, signaling tighter equipment availability and greater pricing pressure for open deck freight.
The differences among these modes reinforce the importance of planning by equipment type rather than relying only on national averages.
Dry Van Rates Remain Steady
The national dry van rate is currently about $3.43 per mile, including fuel. That is one cent higher than the previous week.
The modest increase suggests that pricing remains stable even as dry van rejection rates move lower. Available capacity has improved from the summer peak, but current rates still reflect a market that is tighter than it was early in the year.
Reefer Rates Continue to Rise
The national reefer rate is approximately $3.87 per mile, including fuel. That is three cents higher than the previous week.
Reefer rejection rates eased slightly, but they remain above 20 percent. This indicates that refrigerated capacity is still tight despite the weekly decline. The 2026 rate trend also remains notably different from the patterns seen in recent years, which makes historical comparisons less dependable for near term planning.
Flatbed Shows the Strongest Weekly Increase
The national flatbed rate is currently about $4.07 per mile, including fuel. That is five cents higher than the previous week.
The increase in pricing aligns with the rise in flatbed tender rejections. With more than one in five flatbed tenders being rejected, shippers may face stronger competition for available equipment. Additional lead time will be especially valuable for specialized loads, job site deliveries and lanes with limited return freight.
Shipment Volumes Tell a Mixed Story
Overall shipment volumes continue to follow familiar seasonal timing, but the size of the movements differs from previous years. That means traditional seasonal patterns still offer useful context, though they may not fully explain current capacity and pricing conditions.
The comparison shows that the timing of major volume changes remains similar from year to year, even when total shipment levels differ. This helps explain why holiday related shifts can still affect capacity despite lower overall freight volume.
Dry Van Volume Remains Below Recent Years
Dry van volume is currently below the levels recorded during the same period in each of the previous three years. Volume fell sharply after the Fourth of July and has remained at a lower level following Labor Day.
This creates an interesting market dynamic. Dry van volume is comparatively soft, but rates and rejection levels are still above their early 2026 readings. That suggests available capacity, carrier participation and freight concentration are influencing pricing alongside total shipment volume.
Reefer Volume Breaks From Its Earlier Pattern
Reefer volume began moving away from its earlier seasonal pattern in June. After tracking close to 2023 levels for much of the year, volume moved ahead and has risen considerably since August.
This growth helps explain why reefer rejection rates remain high and why rates continue to increase. Seasonal food demand, harvest activity and the need for temperature controlled equipment can quickly tighten capacity, even when other areas of the truckload market appear more balanced.
What Shippers Should Watch Next
The market has moved away from the extreme pressure seen around the Fourth of July, but it remains tighter than it was at the beginning of the year. Conditions also vary considerably by mode. Dry van capacity has improved, although spot rates remain firm. Reefer demand is rising and rejection rates remain elevated. Flatbed is showing the clearest signs of renewed tightening, with both rejection rates and spot pricing moving higher.
As fall shipping continues, shippers can reduce risk by providing accurate forecasts, offering as much lead time as possible and maintaining flexibility around pickup appointments. Watching rejection rates alongside spot pricing will also provide an early indication of whether capacity is tightening or loosening in the weeks ahead.
IEL will continue monitoring these trends to help customers prepare for changing conditions across dry van, reefer and flatbed transportation.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager