The truckload market is entering the fourth quarter with mixed but important signals. Overall tender rejections eased slightly during the latest week, yet national spot pricing moved higher. Dry van and flatbed rejection rates increased, refrigerated pricing continued to climb, and shipment volumes remained uneven across equipment types.
For shippers, the latest data suggests that capacity is not broadly constrained, but the market is firmer than it was during the quieter weeks of August. Spot rates are proving resilient even when rejection activity moves from week to week, which makes advance planning increasingly valuable as fall freight and holiday inventory begin to overlap.
Spot Pricing Rises as Rejections Remain Elevated
All mode tender rejection rates are currently about 13.92 percent, while the SONAR National Truckload Index is approximately $3.49 per mile, including fuel.
These measurements offer one of the clearest views of truckload capacity. When carriers reject a larger share of contracted freight, more shipments enter the spot market. This creates greater competition for available trucks and gives carriers more pricing leverage. When rejection rates rise for a sustained period, spot rates often follow.
That relationship was especially visible from late winter through early summer. Rejections moved from the low to middle single digits during fall 2025 into the teens by early 2026. Spot pricing climbed alongside them as contracted capacity became less dependable and more freight moved into the spot market.
Both measurements reached their recent peaks around late June and early July. Rejection rates approached 17.5 to 18 percent, while the National Truckload Index rose to roughly $3.75 to $3.80 per mile. This was one of the tightest periods of the year, with shippers facing greater exposure to spot capacity.
Conditions cooled after the Fourth of July. Rejections declined through July and much of August, while spot pricing also retreated from its summer peak. This reflected the usual seasonal normalization as holiday urgency faded and available capacity improved.
More recent data points to a firmer market. Rejections recovered from their August lows and remain elevated at 13.92 percent. At the same time, the National Truckload Index increased to $3.49 per mile.
The fact that spot pricing rose while overall rejections eased slightly is worth watching. It suggests that rates are holding firm despite short term changes in rejection activity. Regional freight concentration, equipment availability and rising demand within specific modes may be supporting pricing even without a broad national capacity shortage.
The market remains below the extreme conditions seen around the Fourth of July, but it is also tighter than it was during the August low point. The next several weeks will reveal whether this is a period of stability or the beginning of another tightening cycle as the fourth quarter gets underway.
Capacity Moves in Different Directions by Mode
Dry van rejection rates are currently 11.81 percent, an increase of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week.
Reefer rejection rates are 21.00 percent, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points from the previous week.
Flatbed rejection rates are 20.15 percent, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from the previous week.
Dry van and flatbed capacity tightened slightly, while reefer rejection activity moved lower. Even after its weekly decline, reefer remains the tightest mode, with more than one in five tenders being rejected. Flatbed also remains elevated above 20 percent, while dry van continues to show a more moderate level of pressure.
These differences reinforce the importance of evaluating capacity by equipment type and region instead of relying only on the national average.
Dry Van Spot Rates Move Higher
The national dry van rate is currently about $3.49 per mile, including fuel. That is seven cents higher than the previous week.
The increase comes as dry van rejection rates also moved slightly higher. Although dry van shipment volume remains soft compared with recent years, the combination of firmer pricing and rising rejections suggests that available capacity may be tightening in certain markets.
Shippers should continue watching whether the rate increase holds as October begins. A sustained rise in rejections would increase the likelihood of more contracted freight moving into the spot market.
Reefer Pricing Approaches Four Dollars Per Mile
The national reefer rate is approximately $3.99 per mile, including fuel. That is nine cents higher than the previous week.
Reefer rejection rates declined during the week, but pricing continued to strengthen. This may reflect ongoing produce demand, rising refrigerated shipment volume and the limited availability of temperature controlled equipment in key regions.
The 2026 reefer market continues to follow a noticeably different path from recent years. Historical patterns still offer useful context, but they may be less dependable for predicting short term conditions. Additional lead time and flexible pickup appointments remain especially valuable for refrigerated freight.
Flatbed Rates Ease Despite Higher Rejections
The national flatbed rate is currently about $4.06 per mile, including fuel. That is eight cents lower than the previous week.
Flatbed rejection rates increased slightly even as spot pricing declined. Weekly differences like this can occur because pricing does not always respond immediately to changing capacity. Lane balance, specialized equipment requirements and the timing of construction or project freight can also influence flatbed rates.
Flatbed pricing remains above four dollars per mile, and rejection activity is still above 20 percent. Shippers should continue securing capacity early for specialized loads, job site deliveries and destinations with limited return freight.
Shipment Volumes Follow Familiar Timing at Lower Levels
Overall shipment volumes continue to follow familiar seasonal timing, but the size of the movements differs from previous years. Traditional patterns remain useful for understanding when freight may rise or fall, though they do not fully explain current pricing and capacity conditions.
The comparison shows that major changes in volume continue to occur around similar points in the calendar, even when total shipment levels are different. This helps explain why capacity can tighten around seasonal events despite lower national freight volume.
Dry Van Volume Remains Below Recent Years
Dry van volume remains below the levels recorded during the same period in each of the previous three years. Volume fell sharply after the Fourth of July and has remained comparatively low following Labor Day.
This creates an important contrast. Dry van volume is soft, yet spot pricing rose seven cents and rejection activity also increased slightly. That suggests total shipment volume is only one part of the pricing picture. Carrier participation, equipment positioning and freight concentration within individual markets also influence capacity.
Reefer Volume Continues to Rise
Reefer volume began separating from its earlier seasonal pattern in June. After tracking near 2023 levels for much of the year, volume moved ahead and has continued to rise considerably since August.
This growth helps explain why reefer spot rates are approaching four dollars per mile even after rejection activity eased during the latest week. Produce, food demand and limited refrigerated equipment can create pricing pressure even when other areas of the truckload market appear more balanced.
What Shippers Should Watch Next
The latest data shows a market that is balanced nationally but increasingly firm in price. Overall tender rejections eased slightly, yet the National Truckload Index moved higher. Dry van and flatbed rejection rates increased, reefer pricing strengthened, and dry van volume remained below recent years.
As October begins, shippers should monitor whether the recent gains in dry van and reefer spot pricing continue. Accurate forecasts, early booking and flexibility around pickup and delivery appointments can help reduce exposure if capacity tightens further.
Reefer freight deserves particular attention because shipment volume and pricing are both moving higher. Flatbed also requires careful planning, especially for specialized equipment and project freight. Dry van conditions may vary considerably by market even while national volume remains soft.
IEL will continue tracking tender rejections, spot rates and shipment volumes to help customers prepare for changing dry van, reefer and flatbed conditions.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager