Load Tender Rejections
If there is one place to start when evaluating the current market, it is rejection rates.
At a glance, the SONAR chart shows rejection rates at 12.83%, but more current data has already pushed that number up to 14.24%. That movement in just a few days highlights how quickly conditions are changing, largely driven by volatility in flatbed capacity.
Looking at the broader trend, 2026 continues to break from historical norms.
In a typical year, Q1 brings a steady decline in rejection rates, usually landing somewhere in the 5–8% range between January and March. That pattern held true across the previous four years.
This year has not followed that script.
Instead, rejection rates have held consistently in the 13–14% range, signaling ongoing disruption in carrier capacity and routing guide performance.
For context, rejection rates reflect the percentage of contracted freight that carriers decline. As that number rises, it becomes increasingly difficult for shippers to rely on primary carriers, pushing more freight into the spot market.
Rejection Rate by Mode
While overall rejection rates remain elevated, the movement within each mode tells a more detailed story.
At a high level, rejection rates have eased slightly through mid-April, with most of the relief coming from flatbed and reefer. Dry van has remained relatively stable. Even with this recent softening, the market is still operating at significantly tighter levels than last year.
Flatbed continues to be the most volatile segment. After a sharp drop week over week, it still sits at extremely elevated levels and remains well above prior year comparisons. The swings here are aggressive, reflecting just how sensitive this segment is to shifts in demand and capacity.
Reefer has followed a more gradual decline, but still mirrors patterns seen in tighter markets like 2022, where rejection rates softened slightly while remaining elevated overall. With produce season ramping, upward pressure is expected to return.
Dry van has shown the most stability. After the typical end of month and end of quarter push in late March, rejection rates have leveled off with only minor movement. Even so, they remain well above where they were this time last year.
Another important dynamic to consider is how capacity is shifting, not disappearing. Since March, there has been a net gain of over 2,000 new carrier authorities. While regulations and enforcement are removing some capacity, new entrants are continuing to enter the market.
This creates a reshuffling effect, where capacity exists, but not always in the right places or with the same level of reliability.
Spot Rate (Including Fuel) US Average
Spot rates continue to reinforce what rejection rates are already signaling.
Looking at the National Truckload Index with fuel included, 2026 is clearly operating above the levels seen in the previous four years. The current year stands apart, with elevated cost per mile sustained through Q1 and into April.
This is not a short term spike. It is a continuation of a broader trend.
As rejection rates remain high, more freight is pushed into the spot market, where pricing is naturally higher and more reactive to real time conditions. The result is a pricing environment that continues to climb, even as some areas of the market show slight easing.
Shipment Volumes
While capacity is tightening and rates are rising, demand is moving in the same direction.
Shipment volumes in 2026 are outpacing prior years, continuing an upward trend that has held through Q1 and into April. This increase in volume is a critical piece of the equation.
More freight in the market means more demand for trucks, and when that demand rises faster than available capacity, pressure builds across the entire network.
As volumes increase:
- Trucks are absorbed more quickly
- Reload opportunities become more limited
- Driver flexibility tightens due to hours of service constraints
- Carriers prioritize higher margin and shorter haul freight
- Imbalances grow between inbound and outbound markets
Even if capacity appears sufficient at a national level, it becomes increasingly difficult to match trucks with freight efficiently.
As more tenders enter the system, primary carriers fill up faster, pushing additional freight into secondary and tertiary options. This naturally leads to rising rejection rates, higher spot pricing, and less consistent service on short lead time shipments.
With produce season, Q2 holidays, and retail restocking cycles approaching, these pressures are expected to build further.
Logistics Managers Index – March Update
The Logistics Managers Index continues to validate what is being seen across transportation data.
Transportation prices are increasing, while capacity is contracting.
March capacity came in at 39.2, a level that is typically associated with peak holiday periods rather than early spring. That alone highlights how tight the market has become.
One of the key drivers behind this tightening is ongoing regulatory enforcement, particularly around non-domiciled CDLs, which is actively impacting driver availability and overall carrier supply.
When comparing pricing and capacity side by side, the relationship is clear. As capacity tightens, pricing responds.
Looking at the broader supply chain, the same pattern holds:
- Inventory levels and costs are rising
- Warehousing prices are increasing
- Transportation utilization is climbing
- Transportation pricing continues to rise
- Warehousing and transportation capacity are both contracting
This is not an isolated transportation issue. It is a full supply chain shift.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 market is not behaving like the years that came before it. Rejection rates are elevated and holding. Spot rates are climbing. Volumes are increasing. And capacity is tightening across multiple fronts. Individually, each of these signals would matter. Together, they point to something bigger.
This is a market operating outside of its normal patterns.
For shippers, that means more complexity, higher costs, and less predictability. For carriers, it means tighter margins and more selective operations.
And for those who understand how to navigate it, it creates opportunity.
Because when disruption becomes the norm, the ability to read the market and respond in real time becomes the difference.
Learn more about how Integrity Express Logistics can help you navigate these roads.
Author
Brian Seven – Sales Engagement Manager